Where will the current Israel-US vs Iran war lead the region and the world?

Here are issues I mentioned in interviews today as ones that will define how the current attacks will impact the region and the world. A definitive assessment needs time, but watch these for now.

1. This round of attacks by Iran and Israel will clarify the offensive and defensive capabilities of both sides, especially in terms of missiles and drones, and the available defences against them. Iran has anticipated such an Israeli attack for at least a decade, so we should assume it has also planned counter-attacks while also fortifying its key military and nuclear research facilities.

2. We will soon find out what non-military weapons each side can use to weaken the other. Missiles and drones are a start, but we should expect unconventional warfare attacks against civilian, infrastructural, digital, and financial sector targets that make life difficult for all.

3. We will get some clarity about how this conflict impacts domestic political lineups in both countries, which simultaneously suffer deep internal fissures and discontent with their regimes. The war could fragment each country, or unite it.

4. We will quickly discover the real US role in this war. Trump claims this is not his war, but Israel’s attacks against Iran, Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon are fully funded and militarily equipped by the US, which also protects Israel at the UN, ICC, and other fora. The entire Middle East and much of the world will now see this as a war between the US/Israel side and Iran.

5. This will create new problems and dilemmas for Arab leaders who have taken the risk of seeking much closer financial, commercial, and defence ties with the US, as we saw during Trump’s Gulf visit last month. Arab leaders who want to become partners with the US will find themselves opposed by most of their people, which will require the governments to become more autocratic, which will further weaken their countries.

6. The impact of the US’ involvement, especially if it has to get more involved in defending Israel, will likely also impact voters in the US, especially among Trump supporters who don’t want the US to get into more forever wars. Support for Israel is steadily declining in the US, and might drop even faster now.

7. The extent and capabilities of Iran’s several allies across the Middle East will be tested in the coming weeks, especially Hezbollah, Hamas, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.

8. Netanyahu sees this attack as the last step in his strategy to reorganize and re-engineer the Middle East, to make all states dependent on Israeli approval of their strategic policies. A few already are. Netanyahu has been planning this regional project for over a decade, including removing Saddam Hussein, weakening Hezbollah and Hamas, hitting Yemen, and controlling trends inside Syria now that Bashshar Assad is gone. We will find out in due course if this strategy will rearrange Arab-Middle East dynamics or internal Israeli-American ones.

9. The cost of this war to Israeli citizens is a big unknown, but a critical one. Israelis now know what it feels like in Southern Lebanon or Gaza. Millions of Israelis have been displaced, emigrated, or are sheltering in bunkers and safe rooms. This is not why the State of Israel was created, in its own perceptions. Israel is the most dangerous place for Jews in the world today. This follows two decades in which all the Arabs, including Palestinians and Hamas, have expressed their willingness to coexist in peace with Israel, if Israel accepts the Palestinians’ right to national self-determination.

10. The Israeli attack against Iran is likely to be a death-knell for international law legacies and the UN system in the Middle East and perhaps most of the world, especially following Israel’s ignoring the global anti-genocide treaty by destroying life and systems that allow life to exist in Gaza.

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